El Gounah 3-2 Zamalek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 12 Mar 2024

📅12/03/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.17
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.68
Over 2.5
37%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.75
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.24
6+ Goals
7%
21.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 36% vs market 30.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
17%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
28%
+3.1pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.0pp
39%
Away Win
44%
-5.1pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+7.2pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-7.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.2pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Gounah EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Zamalek EU Bookmakers 48%
+3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -18%
0.97/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.03
-4% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +9%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
263 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 80%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
20.2 Crosses 21.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Gounah
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Zamalek
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.76 xG 1.61
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
304 Passes 303
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
13 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.08.2022 El Gounah El Gounah 1-4 HT 0-2 Zamalek Zamalek MSR
07.03.2022 Zamalek Zamalek 2-1 HT 2-1 El Gounah El Gounah MSR
30.05.2021 El Gounah El Gounah 0-0 HT 0-0 Zamalek Zamalek MSR
19.01.2021 Zamalek Zamalek 1-0 HT 1-0 El Gounah El Gounah MSR
27.09.2020 Zamalek Zamalek 4-3 HT 1-1 El Gounah El Gounah MSR
15.01.2020 El Gounah El Gounah 0-2 HT 0-1 Zamalek Zamalek MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Gounah
3-2
AWAY Zamalek
1.20 xG 2.08
26% Ball Possession 74%
14 Total Shots 21
6 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 6
135 Passes 552
58% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 33
13 Crosses 27
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH El Gounah vs Zamalek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Gounah squeezed past Zamalek 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (31% / 30% / 39%) promised a tight game; El Gounah found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, El Gounah had 26% of the ball to Zamalek's 74%, shots finished 14-21, expected goals 1.20 to 2.08 — on chances, Zamalek could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zamalek led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for El Gounah and 2.17 for Zamalek.

What was the final score of El Gounah vs Zamalek?

El Gounah 3-2 Zamalek in the Egypt - Premier League on 12/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Gounah vs Zamalek?

Before kick-off our model rated an Zamalek win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split El Gounah 31%, draw 30%, Zamalek 39%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Zamalek) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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