Benevento 1-1 Crotone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 12 Mar 2025

📅12/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
37%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.76
2-3 Goals
37%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.79
6+ Goals
11%
17.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.76 — our 31% vs market 28.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
42%
-7.1pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.5pp
37%
Away Win
29%
+7.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.6pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benevento EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Crotone EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -7%
1.52/1.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.49
+26% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
343 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benevento
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Crotone
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.83 xG 0.74
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
339 Passes 326
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
31.10.2024 Crotone Crotone 2-2 HT 0-1 Benevento Benevento İTC
12.02.2024 Crotone Crotone 0-0 HT 0-0 Benevento Benevento İTC
01.10.2023 Benevento Benevento 3-2 HT 0-1 Crotone Crotone İTC
12.03.2022 Benevento Benevento 3-1 HT 2-1 Crotone Crotone İTB
28.10.2021 Crotone Crotone 0-2 HT 0-1 Benevento Benevento İTB
16.05.2021 Benevento Benevento 1-1 HT 1-0 Crotone Crotone İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benevento
1-1
AWAY Crotone
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Benevento vs Crotone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benevento and Crotone couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Benevento had 64% of the ball to Crotone's 36%, shots finished 20-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benevento had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Benevento and 1.00 for Crotone.

What was the final score of Benevento vs Crotone?

Benevento 1-1 Crotone in the Italy - Serie C on 12/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benevento vs Crotone?

Before kick-off our model rated an Crotone win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Benevento 35%, draw 28%, Crotone 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Crotone) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Crotone) ✓ Under 2.5
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