Greuther Fürth 2-1 Kaiserslautern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 12 Apr 2024

Greuther Fürth
2-1 HT 0-1
Kaiserslautern
📅12/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Greuther Fürth vs Kaiserslautern Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
38%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.29
Over 2.5
49%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.49
No
49%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.82
2-3 Goals
40%
1.93
4-5 Goals
23%
2.81
6+ Goals
11%
7.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.82 — our 26% vs market 16.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.82
1/2
6%
23.6
1/X
5%
12.55
X/1
10%
6.25
X/2
12%
5.47
X/X
12%
5.51
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
21%
3.17
2/X
9%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+0.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
38%
Away Win
40%
-1.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
40%
+11.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
60%
-11.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
63%
-12.5pp
49%
BTTS No
37%
+12.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Greuther Fürth v Kaiserslautern — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Greuther Fürth EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Kaiserslautern EU Bookmakers 43%
+7% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
1.67/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.33
+16% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
297 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 73%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.6
18.7 Crosses 23.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.4

Greuther Fürth vs Kaiserslautern Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Greuther Fürth
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Kaiserslautern
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.94 xG 2.16
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
369 Passes 261
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.11.2023 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 0-2 HT 0-1 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
25.02.2023 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 3-1 HT 1-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
21.08.2022 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 1-3 HT 1-0 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern AL2
10.03.2018 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 2-1 HT 1-1 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern AL2
29.09.2017 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 3-0 HT 0-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
08.04.2017 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 2-0 HT 2-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2

Greuther Fürth 2-1 Kaiserslautern — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Greuther Fürth
2-1
AWAY Kaiserslautern
1.24 xG 1.89
68% Ball Possession 32%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
552 Passes 199
87% Pass Accuracy 69%
17 Box Touches 16
10 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Greuther Fürth vs Kaiserslautern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Greuther Fürth nicked a narrow win over Kaiserslautern 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 38% — and on the day Greuther Fürth made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Greuther Fürth had 68% of the ball to Kaiserslautern's 32%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 1.24 to 1.89 — the balance of chances actually favoured Kaiserslautern.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kaiserslautern led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Greuther Fürth and 2.00 for Kaiserslautern.

What was the final score of Greuther Fürth vs Kaiserslautern?

Greuther Fürth 2-1 Kaiserslautern in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 12/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Greuther Fürth vs Kaiserslautern?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kaiserslautern win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Greuther Fürth 36%, draw 26%, Kaiserslautern 38%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Kaiserslautern), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kaiserslautern) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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