South Melbourne 3-0 Green Gully — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 12 Apr 2024

South Melbourne
3-0 HT 1-0
Green Gully
📅12/04/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Australia - National Premier League – 2024

South Melbourne vs Green Gully Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-6.8pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.4pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

South Melbourne v Green Gully — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Green Gully EU Bookmakers 23%
+14% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -8%
1.58/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.67
-4% / +68% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
284 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
16.6 Crosses 25.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9

South Melbourne vs Green Gully Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South Melbourne
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Green Gully
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.60 xG 0.89
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
114 Passes 234
50% Pass Accuracy 66%
22 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.05.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 1-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
24.02.2023 Green Gully Green Gully 1-3 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
04.09.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 0-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
24.06.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 0-0 HT 0-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
26.03.2022 Green Gully Green Gully 0-2 HT 0-2 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
09.07.2021 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-1 HT 0-1 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
POST-MATCH South Melbourne vs Green Gully
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne cruised past Green Gully 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had South Melbourne as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for South Melbourne and 0.33 for Green Gully.

What was the final score of South Melbourne vs Green Gully?

South Melbourne 3-0 Green Gully in the Australia - National Premier League on 12/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South Melbourne vs Green Gully?

Before kick-off our model rated a South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split South Melbourne 50%, draw 26%, Green Gully 24%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (South Melbourne) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✗ Under 2.5
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