Excelsior 4-0 Volendam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 12 Apr 2024

Excelsior
4-0 HT 2-0
Volendam
📅12/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Excelsior vs Volendam Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.38
Over 2.5
55%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.06
2-3 Goals
40%
1.96
4-5 Goals
22%
2.74
6+ Goals
13%
7.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.13
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.25
X/1
23%
4.24
X/2
11%
9.52
X/X
10%
6.2
2/1
6%
20.15
2/2
10%
6.43
2/X
7%
14.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
55%
-9.0pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.3pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+6.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.6pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Excelsior v Volendam — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Volendam EU Bookmakers 26%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.92/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.57
+44% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
27.5 Crosses 17.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.8

Excelsior vs Volendam Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Volendam
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.20 xG 1.90
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 8
293 Passes 378
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Volendam Volendam 3-1 HT 0-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
28.05.2023 Volendam Volendam 3-2 HT 3-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
20.01.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 2-0 HT 1-0 Volendam Volendam HOL
11.03.2022 Volendam Volendam 2-5 HT 1-4 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
20.08.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 1-1 HT 1-1 Volendam Volendam HOL2
05.02.2021 Volendam Volendam 0-2 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2

Excelsior 4-0 Volendam — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
4-0
AWAY Volendam
4.70 xG 0.66
63% Ball Possession 37%
35 Total Shots 13
15 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 2
323 Passes 147
79% Pass Accuracy 60%
46 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs Volendam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior cruised past Volendam 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Excelsior had 63% of the ball to Volendam's 37%, shots finished 35-13, expected goals 4.70 to 0.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Excelsior and 1.50 for Volendam.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs Volendam?

Excelsior 4-0 Volendam in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 12/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs Volendam?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 46%, draw 25%, Volendam 29%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →