Crusaders FC 1-2 Linfield FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 12 Apr 2024

📅12/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.17
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
43%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.03
Over 2.5
45%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.84
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
18%
3.19
6+ Goals
11%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.84 — our 32% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
5.02
1/2
9%
23.15
1/X
4%
13.9
X/1
15%
7.16
X/2
15%
4.55
X/X
15%
5.21
2/1
8%
34.0
2/2
20%
2.68
2/X
6%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
28%
+3.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.1pp
43%
Away Win
48%
-4.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
45%
+10.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
55%
-10.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.6pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crusaders FC EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Linfield FC EU Bookmakers 52%
-3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -3%
1.31/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.42
+0% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / -21%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
332 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crusaders FC
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Linfield FC
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.01.2024 Linfield FC Linfield FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
02.01.2024 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Linfield FC Linfield FC KİRL
26.09.2023 Linfield FC Linfield FC 2-0 HT 2-0 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
07.04.2023 Linfield FC Linfield FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
24.01.2023 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Linfield FC Linfield FC KİRL
26.11.2022 Linfield FC Linfield FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crusaders FC
1-2
AWAY Linfield FC
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Crusaders FC vs Linfield FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Linfield FC edged past Crusaders FC 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Linfield FC as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Crusaders FC had 41% of the ball to Linfield FC's 59%, shots finished 8-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Linfield FC led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Crusaders FC and 0.67 for Linfield FC.

What was the final score of Crusaders FC vs Linfield FC?

Crusaders FC 1-2 Linfield FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 12/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crusaders FC vs Linfield FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Linfield FC win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Crusaders FC 31%, draw 26%, Linfield FC 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Linfield FC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Linfield FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →