Linfield FC 1-0 Crusaders FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
31%
3.72
Away
20%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.91
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.88
6+ Goals
13%
17.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.11
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X EV+ ✗
7%
16.45
X/1
18%
3.63
X/2
7%
10.0
X/X
19%
4.88
2/1
5%
25.0
2/2
8%
8.44
2/X
5%
17.3
Value flag · 1/X at 16.45 — our 7% vs market 3.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-9.0pp
31%
Draw
24%
+7.0pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+1.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.7pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Linfield FC EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Crusaders FC EU Bookmakers 21%
+19% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
2.25/0.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.52
+2% / +138% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +15%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
319 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Linfield FC
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Crusaders FC
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
52% Ball Possession 48%
6 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.01.2024 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Linfield FC Linfield FC KİRL
26.09.2023 Linfield FC Linfield FC 2-0 HT 2-0 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
07.04.2023 Linfield FC Linfield FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
24.01.2023 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Linfield FC Linfield FC KİRL
26.11.2022 Linfield FC Linfield FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
16.09.2022 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 2-1 HT 0-0 Linfield FC Linfield FC KİRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Linfield FC
1-0
AWAY Crusaders FC
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Linfield FC vs Crusaders FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Linfield FC edged past Crusaders FC 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Linfield FC as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Linfield FC had 50% of the ball to Crusaders FC's 50%, shots finished 8-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Linfield FC and 0.67 for Crusaders FC.

What was the final score of Linfield FC vs Crusaders FC?

Linfield FC 1-0 Crusaders FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Linfield FC vs Crusaders FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Linfield FC win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Linfield FC 49%, draw 31%, Crusaders FC 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Linfield FC), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Linfield FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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