Dungannon Swifts 0-2 Larne FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
5.34
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
46%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.46
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.34
6+ Goals
11%
12.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 27% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
9.55
1/2
8%
23.0
1/X
8%
18.15
X/1 EV+ ✗
11%
11.75
X/2
17%
3.57
X/X
11%
5.69
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
20%
1.88
2/X
7%
17.35
Value flag · X/1 at 11.75 — our 11% vs market 5.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
16%
+12.9pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.6pp
46%
Away Win
62%
-16.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.4pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dungannon Swifts EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Larne FC EU Bookmakers 66%
-6% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
0.90/2.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.05/0.72
-16% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +35%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
282 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 412 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dungannon Swifts
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Larne FC
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
41% Ball Possession 59%
5 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.10.2023 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts 0-0 HT 0-0 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
07.08.2023 Larne FC Larne FC 4-4 HT 1-1 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts KİRL
14.02.2023 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts 0-3 HT 0-0 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
18.11.2022 Larne FC Larne FC 2-1 HT 0-1 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts KİRL
08.11.2022 Larne FC Larne FC 4-0 HT 2-0 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts KİRL
26.02.2022 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts 0-2 HT 0-1 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dungannon Swifts
0-2
AWAY Larne FC
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dungannon Swifts vs Larne FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Larne FC saw off Dungannon Swifts 2-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Larne FC as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Dungannon Swifts had 47% of the ball to Larne FC's 53%, shots finished 10-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Larne FC led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Dungannon Swifts and 2.50 for Larne FC.

What was the final score of Dungannon Swifts vs Larne FC?

Dungannon Swifts 0-2 Larne FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dungannon Swifts vs Larne FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Larne FC win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Dungannon Swifts 29%, draw 25%, Larne FC 46%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Larne FC), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Larne FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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