Ulm 1846 1-0 Magdeburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
2.07
Over Pick
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.92
2-3
41%
1.84
4-5
23%
3.06
6+
10%
9.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.88
1/2
8%
23.3
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
8%
7.22
X/2
20%
5.16
X/X
13%
5.16
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
16%
2.9
2/X
6%
12.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.0 — our 8% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 50%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+1.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
44%
Away Win
44%
+0.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.7pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ulm 1846 EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Magdeburg EU Bookmakers 48%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.16/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.17
-26% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +14%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
296 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
15.1 Crosses 14.2
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ulm 1846
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Magdeburg
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.48 xG 1.06
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 22
1 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 14
186 Passes 341
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Box Touches 31
9 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2024 Magdeburg Magdeburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ulm 1846
1-0
AWAY Magdeburg
1.45 xG 0.89
37% Ball Possession 63%
6 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
175 Passes 376
70% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 32
13 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ulm 1846 vs Magdeburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ulm 1846 nicked a narrow win over Magdeburg 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Magdeburg at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Ulm 1846 had 37% of the ball to Magdeburg's 63%, shots finished 6-14, expected goals 1.45 to 0.89.

What was the final score of Ulm 1846 vs Magdeburg?

Ulm 1846 1-0 Magdeburg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ulm 1846 vs Magdeburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Magdeburg win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ulm 1846 31%, draw 25%, Magdeburg 44%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Magdeburg)
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