Mirassol FC 2-1 Paysandu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.61
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
26%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.16
No
57%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.62
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.49
6+ Goals
8%
23.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.62 — our 35% vs market 32.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
58%
-13.2pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.8pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+8.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.8pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Paysandu EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -17%
1.49/0.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/0.75
-27% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
396 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 71%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
21.7 Crosses 14.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mirassol FC
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Paysandu
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 5
26.04.2022 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 1-1 HT 0-1 Paysandu Paysandu BRE3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mirassol FC
2-1
AWAY Paysandu
1.07 xG 0.67
32% Ball Possession 68%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
195 Passes 501
75% Pass Accuracy 89%
19 Box Touches 23
8 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Mirassol FC vs Paysandu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mirassol FC nicked a narrow win over Paysandu 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Mirassol FC as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mirassol FC had 32% of the ball to Paysandu's 68%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 1.07 to 0.67.

What was the final score of Mirassol FC vs Paysandu?

Mirassol FC 2-1 Paysandu in the Brazil - Serie B on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mirassol FC vs Paysandu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mirassol FC win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Mirassol FC 45%, draw 29%, Paysandu 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mirassol FC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mirassol FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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