Avarta 1-3 Naesby — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 3rd Division, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
40%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.21
Over 2.5
49%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
38%
-7.5pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.9pp
40%
Away Win
37%
+3.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.6pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avarta EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Naesby EU Bookmakers 40%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.03/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.58
-36% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
330 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 399 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avarta
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Naesby
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.04.2024 Avarta Avarta 2-4 HT 0-1 Naesby Naesby DAN3
19.08.2023 Naesby Naesby 0-0 HT 0-0 Avarta Avarta DAN3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avarta
1-3
AWAY Naesby
45% Ball Possession 55%
4 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Avarta vs Naesby
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naesby got the better of Avarta 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 29% / 40% — and on the day Naesby made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Avarta had 45% of the ball to Naesby's 55%, shots finished 4-13.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Naesby led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Avarta and 2.00 for Naesby.

What was the final score of Avarta vs Naesby?

Avarta 1-3 Naesby in the Denmark - 3rd Division on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avarta vs Naesby?

Before kick-off our model rated an Naesby win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Avarta 31%, draw 29%, Naesby 40%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Naesby), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Naesby) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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