BFC Daugavpils 4-1 FK Tukums 2000 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-4.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+4.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.7pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 26%
+22% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.78/1.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.71
+34% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / -20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
280 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 80%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
16.8 Crosses 20.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
2W-2D-2L
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.63 xG 1.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
215 Passes 287
66% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-1 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
01.09.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 3-0 HT 2-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
26.06.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-1 HT 2-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
03.05.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-3 HT 2-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
12.03.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
10.09.2022 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
4-1
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
2.95 xG 1.46
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
370 Passes 298
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs FK Tukums 2000
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils ran out comfortable winners over FK Tukums 2000 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had BFC Daugavpils as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 55% of the ball to FK Tukums 2000's 45%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.95 to 1.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.50 for FK Tukums 2000.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs FK Tukums 2000?

BFC Daugavpils 4-1 FK Tukums 2000 in the Latvia - Virsliga on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs FK Tukums 2000?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 47%, draw 26%, FK Tukums 2000 27%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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