BFC Daugavpils 3-1 FK Tukums 2000 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.6
Over 2.5
48%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-0.8pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.4pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+2.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
59%
-7.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
41%
+7.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.3pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 37%
+25% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
2.23/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.72
+101% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -25%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
441 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 75%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
17.3 Crosses 22.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
2W-2D-2L
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.64 xG 1.63
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
212 Passes 292
64% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 3-0 HT 2-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
26.06.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-1 HT 2-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
03.05.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-3 HT 2-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
12.03.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
10.09.2022 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
26.06.2022 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 0-1 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
3-1
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
1.58 xG 0.99
48% Ball Possession 52%
19 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
226 Passes 267
72% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs FK Tukums 2000
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils got the better of FK Tukums 2000 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; BFC Daugavpils found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 48% of the ball to FK Tukums 2000's 52%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 1.58 to 0.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.33 for FK Tukums 2000.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs FK Tukums 2000?

BFC Daugavpils 3-1 FK Tukums 2000 in the Latvia - Virsliga on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs FK Tukums 2000?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 37%, draw 27%, FK Tukums 2000 35%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFC Daugavpils), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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