CA Penarol 1-0 Montevideo Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.47
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
21%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
64%
-11.2pp
27%
Draw
22%
+4.4pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+6.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.6pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Montevideo Wanderers EU Bookmakers 17%
-6% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
1.54/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.92
-20% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -19%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
343 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Montevideo Wanderers
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 4
06.12.2023 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
25.06.2023 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
13.05.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-1 HT 1-0 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
03.10.2022 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 0-2 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
17.07.2022 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 3-3 HT 1-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
09.05.2022 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-0 HT 1-0 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
1-0
AWAY Montevideo Wanderers
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs Montevideo Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol squeezed past Montevideo Wanderers 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, CA Penarol had 49% of the ball to Montevideo Wanderers's 51%, shots finished 13-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for CA Penarol and 0.67 for Montevideo Wanderers.

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Montevideo Wanderers?

CA Penarol 1-0 Montevideo Wanderers in the Uruguay - Premier League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Montevideo Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 52%, draw 27%, Montevideo Wanderers 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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