Progreso vs Defensor Sporting Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Progreso v Defensor Sporting — Team-Based Signals
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 0-1
Progreso
URUK
1-1
HT 0-0
Defensor Sporting
URUK
3-3
HT 2-1
Defensor Sporting
URU
2-1
HT 0-0
Progreso
URU
2-4
HT 1-0
Progreso
URU
3-1
HT 2-0
Defensor Sporting
URU
Progreso 1-4 Defensor Sporting — Actual Match Statistics
Defensor Sporting ran out comfortable winners over Progreso 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Defensor Sporting found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Progreso had 57% of the ball to Defensor Sporting's 43%, shots finished 12-13.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Progreso and 2.00 for Defensor Sporting.
What was the final score of Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
Progreso 1-4 Defensor Sporting in the Uruguay - Premier League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
Before kick-off our model rated an Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Progreso 35%, draw 25%, Defensor Sporting 40%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Defensor Sporting) — while BTTS No went the other way.