Novorizontino 2-2 Ferroviaria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 12 May 2025

📅12/05/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.64
Draw
37%
3.28
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
72%
1.41
Over
28%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
33%
2.77
No
67%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1
43%
2-3
37%
4-5
14%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
28%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 72%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
41%
Home Win
57%
-15.7pp
37%
Draw
27%
+10.1pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.5pp
72%
Under 2.5
67%
+4.5pp
28%
Over 2.5
33%
-4.5pp
33%
BTTS Yes
32%
+1.3pp
67%
BTTS No
68%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novorizontino The Market 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Ferroviaria The Market 20%
-6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.35/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.47/1.14
-10% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +150%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
322 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 71%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.4
25.9 Crosses 11.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novorizontino
3W-2D-0L
AWAY Ferroviaria
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
0.95 xG 1.07
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
249 Passes 354
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
18.04.2021 Novorizontino Novorizontino 3-1 HT 2-1 Ferroviaria Ferroviaria BREPAU
14.03.2020 Ferroviaria Ferroviaria 0-0 HT 0-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BREPAU
21.03.2019 Novorizontino Novorizontino 1-1 HT 0-0 Ferroviaria Ferroviaria BREPAU
11.03.2017 Novorizontino Novorizontino 2-0 HT 1-0 Ferroviaria Ferroviaria BREPAU
06.03.2016 Ferroviaria Ferroviaria 1-2 HT 0-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novorizontino
2-2
AWAY Ferroviaria
2.25 xG 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
318 Passes 340
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Novorizontino vs Ferroviaria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novorizontino and Ferroviaria couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (41% / 37% / 22%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (72%), no to both teams scoring (67%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Novorizontino had 50% of the ball to Ferroviaria's 50%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 2.25 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Novorizontino had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Novorizontino and 0.60 for Ferroviaria.

What was the final score of Novorizontino vs Ferroviaria?

Novorizontino 2-2 Ferroviaria in the Brazil - Serie B on 12/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novorizontino vs Ferroviaria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novorizontino win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Novorizontino 41%, draw 37%, Ferroviaria 22%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Novorizontino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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