Louisville City 2-1 Rhode Island — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 12 Jun 2025

📅12/06/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.45
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.21
6+ Goals
10%
11.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 25% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
61%
-5.8pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.7pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.2pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Louisville City EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Rhode Island EU Bookmakers 20%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +36% / +36%
1.95/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/2.10
+14% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
337 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 77%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
22.6 Crosses 10.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Louisville City
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Rhode Island
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
2.08 xG 1.30
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
318 Passes 254
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
30 Box Touches 18
32 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
10.11.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 0-3 HT 0-1 Rhode Island Rhode Island USLP
23.06.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 2-5 HT 0-2 Rhode Island Rhode Island USLP
25.05.2024 Rhode Island Rhode Island 0-0 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Louisville City
2-1
AWAY Rhode Island
0.82 xG 0.60
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 0
219 Passes 314
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 8
22 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Louisville City vs Rhode Island
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City edged past Rhode Island 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Louisville City had 43% of the ball to Rhode Island's 57%, shots finished 12-4, expected goals 0.82 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Rhode Island led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Louisville City and 2.67 for Rhode Island.

What was the final score of Louisville City vs Rhode Island?

Louisville City 2-1 Rhode Island in the USL Championship on 12/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Rhode Island?

Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 55%, draw 23%, Rhode Island 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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