Heidelberg United 2-0 Melbourne Knights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 12 Jul 2024

📅12/07/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
1.9
Draw
33%
3.64
Away
33%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
48%
-14.9pp
33%
Draw
24%
+9.5pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+5.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.2pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidelberg United EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Knights EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +7%
1.12/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.56/2.19
-7% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +28%
50% Ball Possession 50%
0 Total Shots 0
0 Shots on Target 0
0 Corners 0
0 · 0% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 0 · 0%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.0 Crosses 19.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidelberg United
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Melbourne Knights
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.18 xG 2.60
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
201 Passes 385
66% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.04.2024 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights 0-1 HT 0-0 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United AVNPL
14.09.2023 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights 3-2 HT 1-2 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United AVUK
19.08.2023 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 3-2 HT 2-1 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights AVNPL
12.05.2023 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights 5-0 HT 2-0 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United AVNPL
19.06.2022 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 3-2 HT 3-1 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights AVNPL
18.03.2022 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights 0-4 HT 0-2 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United AVNPL
POST-MATCH Heidelberg United vs Melbourne Knights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidelberg United saw off Melbourne Knights 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 33% / 33%) promised a tight game; Heidelberg United found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heidelberg United had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Heidelberg United and 2.00 for Melbourne Knights.

What was the final score of Heidelberg United vs Melbourne Knights?

Heidelberg United 2-0 Melbourne Knights in the Australia - National Premier League on 12/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidelberg United vs Melbourne Knights?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heidelberg United win the most likely single outcome at about 33%, with the full match-result split Heidelberg United 33%, draw 33%, Melbourne Knights 33%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (33/33/33)
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