Banga Gargzdai 2-4 Hegelmann Litauen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 12 Jul 2024

📅12/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.48
Draw
32%
3.54
Away
48%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.82
Over 2.5
41%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.85
No
58%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
27%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
19%
+0.6pp
32%
Draw
25%
+7.1pp
48%
Away Win
55%
-7.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
51%
+8.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
49%
-8.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
50%
-7.9pp
58%
BTTS No
50%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Banga Gargzdai EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen EU Bookmakers 59%
-34% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
0.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/0.00
-100% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% /
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
238 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Banga Gargzdai
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 1
21.04.2024 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 2-2 HT 1-1 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai LIT1
29.09.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 1-0 HT 0-0 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai LIT1
25.07.2023 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai 0-3 HT 0-2 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LITA
19.05.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 5-0 HT 3-0 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai LIT1
31.03.2023 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai 0-5 HT 0-3 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
24.07.2022 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai 1-1 HT 0-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Banga Gargzdai
2-4
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Banga Gargzdai vs Hegelmann Litauen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hegelmann Litauen saw off Banga Gargzdai 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hegelmann Litauen as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Banga Gargzdai had 46% of the ball to Hegelmann Litauen's 54%, shots finished 14-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hegelmann Litauen led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Banga Gargzdai and 2.83 for Hegelmann Litauen.

What was the final score of Banga Gargzdai vs Hegelmann Litauen?

Banga Gargzdai 2-4 Hegelmann Litauen in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 12/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Banga Gargzdai vs Hegelmann Litauen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hegelmann Litauen win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Banga Gargzdai 20%, draw 32%, Hegelmann Litauen 48%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hegelmann Litauen) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hegelmann Litauen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →