Hegelmann Litauen 2-2 Banga Gargzdai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.49
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
62%
-10.2pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.2pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+8.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.1pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hegelmann Litauen EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Banga Gargzdai EU Bookmakers 19%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +1%
1.77/0.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.88
+0% / +104% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -12%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
404 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hegelmann Litauen
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Banga Gargzdai
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 4
29.09.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 1-0 HT 0-0 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai LIT1
25.07.2023 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai 0-3 HT 0-2 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LITA
19.05.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 5-0 HT 3-0 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai LIT1
31.03.2023 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai 0-5 HT 0-3 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
24.07.2022 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai 1-1 HT 0-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
09.07.2022 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 5-0 HT 2-0 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai LIT1
POST-MATCH Hegelmann Litauen vs Banga Gargzdai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hegelmann Litauen and Banga Gargzdai shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Hegelmann Litauen at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hegelmann Litauen had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Hegelmann Litauen and 0.17 for Banga Gargzdai.

What was the final score of Hegelmann Litauen vs Banga Gargzdai?

Hegelmann Litauen 2-2 Banga Gargzdai in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hegelmann Litauen vs Banga Gargzdai?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hegelmann Litauen win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Hegelmann Litauen 52%, draw 24%, Banga Gargzdai 24%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hegelmann Litauen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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