Melbourne Knights 1-2 Dandenong Thunder — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 12 Aug 2024

📅12/08/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.29
Over 2.5
51%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
6%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.5pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.3pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
40%
+9.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
60%
-9.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.9pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Knights EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Dandenong Thunder EU Bookmakers 27%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -7%
1.03/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/0.40
-17% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
304 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.9 Crosses 19.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Knights
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Dandenong Thunder
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.46 xG 1.67
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
258 Passes 342
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2024 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 0-3 HT 0-2 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights AVNPL
13.08.2023 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights 2-1 HT 1-0 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
06.05.2023 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 0-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights AVNPL
22.07.2022 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights 1-2 HT 0-1 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
23.04.2022 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 3-1 HT 1-1 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights AVNPL
05.03.2021 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights 2-1 HT 1-0 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
POST-MATCH Melbourne Knights vs Dandenong Thunder
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dandenong Thunder squeezed past Melbourne Knights 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Knights at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Knights had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Melbourne Knights and 1.17 for Dandenong Thunder.

What was the final score of Melbourne Knights vs Dandenong Thunder?

Melbourne Knights 1-2 Dandenong Thunder in the Australia - National Premier League on 12/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Knights vs Dandenong Thunder?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Knights win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Knights 51%, draw 25%, Dandenong Thunder 24%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Melbourne Knights), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne Knights) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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