Nacional 1-2 Plaza Colonia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay Cup, 12 Sep 2025

📅12/09/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
58%
1.45
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
53%
1.8
Over
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.13
No
51%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2-3
38%
4-5
23%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Nacional win — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
57%
Home Win
65%
-7.1pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.1pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+4.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
43%
+5.9pp
51%
BTTS No
57%
-5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional The Market 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Plaza Colonia The Market 17%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-19% / -65% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
380 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 211 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Plaza Colonia
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
67% Ball Possession 33%
16 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 3
17 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 2
30.10.2024 Nacional Nacional 4-0 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia URUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional
1-2
AWAY Plaza Colonia
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Nacional vs Plaza Colonia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Plaza Colonia edged past Nacional 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Nacional carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Nacional had 59% of the ball to Plaza Colonia's 41%, shots finished 11-6.

What was the final score of Nacional vs Plaza Colonia?

Nacional 1-2 Plaza Colonia in the Uruguay Cup on 12/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional vs Plaza Colonia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Nacional 57%, draw 24%, Plaza Colonia 18%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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