Crawley Town 3-5 Shrewsbury — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.16
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.71
6+ Goals
10%
15.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 32% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.04
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
17%
4.67
X/2
15%
6.39
X/X
12%
4.63
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
13%
4.69
2/X
6%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-2.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.0pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Shrewsbury EU Bookmakers 33%
-1% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +7%
1.18/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.17
-18% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
372 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
Crosses 15.5
Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crawley Town
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Shrewsbury
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
15 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
11.03.2014 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 1-1 HT 0-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN1
14.09.2013 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN1
01.04.2013 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 3-0 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN1
08.12.2012 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-2 HT 1-2 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN1
27.02.2012 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 2-1 HT 1-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
15.10.2011 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-1 HT 2-0 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crawley Town
3-5
AWAY Shrewsbury
1.28 xG 3.29
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
322 Passes 213
78% Pass Accuracy 69%
16 Box Touches 37
8 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shrewsbury beat Crawley Town 5-3 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Crawley Town at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Crawley Town had 56% of the ball to Shrewsbury's 44%, shots finished 15-18, expected goals 1.28 to 3.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shrewsbury led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Crawley Town and 1.67 for Shrewsbury.

What was the final score of Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?

Crawley Town 3-5 Shrewsbury in the England - 1st Division on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crawley Town win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Crawley Town 41%, draw 24%, Shrewsbury 34%. The final score 3-5 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Crawley Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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