Gine 4-1 Etiyopya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.61
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
28%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
61%
1.48
Over
39%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.51
No
60%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1
37%
2.2
2-3
37%
1.8
4-5
19%
5.66
6+
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
58%
-15.5pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.7pp
28%
Away Win
16%
+11.8pp
61%
Under 2.5
64%
-2.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
36%
+3.0pp
40%
BTTS Yes
36%
+4.3pp
60%
BTTS No
64%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gine EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Etiyopya EU Bookmakers 19%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
0.95/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.48
-21% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / +25%
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
376 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 75%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.5
17.7 Crosses 9.5
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gine
4W-0D-0L
AWAY Etiyopya
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.98 xG 0.78
39% Ball Possession 61%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
322 Passes 556
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 13
13 Crosses 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.03.2023 Etiyopya Etiyopya 2-3 HT 1-2 Gine Gine AFUK
24.03.2023 Gine Gine 2-0 HT 1-0 Etiyopya Etiyopya AFUK
04.09.2011 Gine Gine 1-0 HT 1-0 Etiyopya Etiyopya AFUK
05.09.2010 Etiyopya Etiyopya 1-4 HT 1-2 Gine Gine AFUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gine
4-1
AWAY Etiyopya
3.30 xG 1.42
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
377 Passes 406
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gine vs Etiyopya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gine swept aside Etiyopya 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gine as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gine had 48% of the ball to Etiyopya's 52%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 3.30 to 1.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Gine had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Gine and 0.75 for Etiyopya.

What was the final score of Gine vs Etiyopya?

Gine 4-1 Etiyopya in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gine vs Etiyopya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gine win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Gine 42%, draw 30%, Etiyopya 28%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gine) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gine) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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