Alverca vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Alverca v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
Alverca 2-2 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
Alverca and Penafiel couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.
We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Alverca had 66% of the ball to Penafiel's 34%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 2.61 to 1.85.
What was the final score of Alverca vs Penafiel?
Alverca 2-2 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Alverca vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated an Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Alverca 35%, draw 28%, Penafiel 37%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.