Tondela 2-1 Leixoes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.46
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.54
Over 2.5
41%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.38
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
5.07
6+ Goals
8%
30.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-3.0pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.4pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+2.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
61%
-2.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
39%
+2.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.0pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tondela EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Leixoes EU Bookmakers 37%
-7% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +16%
1.13/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.13
+8% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +27%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
297 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.6 Crosses 17.9
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tondela
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Leixoes
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.49 xG 0.98
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
290 Passes 310
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 Leixoes Leixoes 1-1 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
07.10.2023 Tondela Tondela 4-2 HT 2-1 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
08.04.2023 Tondela Tondela 2-3 HT 0-1 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
24.10.2022 Leixoes Leixoes 1-1 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
22.11.2021 Tondela Tondela 3-1 HT 1-0 Leixoes Leixoes POK
18.12.2018 Leixoes Leixoes 2-2 HT 1-2 Tondela Tondela POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tondela
2-1
AWAY Leixoes
2.08 xG 1.58
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 1
294 Passes 193
77% Pass Accuracy 67%
28 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Tondela vs Leixoes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela nicked a narrow win over Leixoes 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (34% / 30% / 36%) promised a tight game; Tondela found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tondela had 58% of the ball to Leixoes's 42%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 2.08 to 1.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tondela had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Tondela and 1.67 for Leixoes.

What was the final score of Tondela vs Leixoes?

Tondela 2-1 Leixoes in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tondela vs Leixoes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leixoes win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Tondela 34%, draw 30%, Leixoes 36%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Leixoes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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