Newcastle United 2-3 Manchester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 13 Jan 2024

Newcastle United
2-3 HT 2-1
Manchester City
📅13/01/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Newcastle United vs Manchester City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
4.04
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
44%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.14
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
3.07
6+ Goals
12%
9.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
7.28
1/2
5%
22.15
1/X
6%
15.4
X/1
10%
9.68
X/2
19%
3.96
X/X
14%
5.44
2/1
8%
34.0
2/2
20%
2.11
2/X
4%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
22%
+10.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
44%
Away Win
55%
-11.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.2pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle United v Manchester City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester City EU Bookmakers 59%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -14%
1.30/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/1.27
+26% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -1%
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
275 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 471 · 84%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.0
17.3 Crosses 17.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7

Newcastle United vs Manchester City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Manchester City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.76 xG 1.88
34% Ball Possession 66%
7 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
273 Passes 588
79% Pass Accuracy 89%
17 Box Touches 33
11 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.09.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNLK
19.08.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 1-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
04.03.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 2-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
21.08.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 3-3 HT 2-1 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
08.05.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 5-0 HT 2-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
19.12.2021 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-4 HT 0-2 Manchester City Manchester City İNP

Newcastle United 2-3 Manchester City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
2-3
AWAY Manchester City
1.30 xG 3.00
27% Ball Possession 73%
12 Total Shots 27
5 Shots on Target 11
3 Corners 13
203 Passes 677
73% Pass Accuracy 91%
26 Box Touches 67
8 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Manchester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester City edged past Newcastle United 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Manchester City as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Newcastle United had 27% of the ball to Manchester City's 73%, shots finished 12-27, expected goals 1.30 to 3.00 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Manchester City's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Newcastle United and 2.50 for Manchester City.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Manchester City?

Newcastle United 2-3 Manchester City in the England - Premier League on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Manchester City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 32%, draw 24%, Manchester City 44%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Manchester City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
13 Jan 2024
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