Burgos 1-0 Valladolid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
32%
2.88
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.48
Over 2.5
39%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.2
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
5.57
6+ Goals
8%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.39
1/2
11%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.95
X/1
13%
5.57
X/2
10%
5.1
X/X
20%
3.44
2/1
8%
34.0
2/2
12%
3.88
2/X
6%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.1pp
32%
Draw
31%
+0.9pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
64%
-3.0pp
39%
Over 2.5
36%
+3.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.1pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burgos EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Valladolid EU Bookmakers 39%
+9% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +10%
1.04/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.22
-1% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -9%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
276 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 79%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
17.6 Crosses 19.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burgos
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Valladolid
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.11 xG 1.16
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
239 Passes 385
72% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.10.2023 Valladolid Valladolid 3-0 HT 2-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
23.07.2022 Burgos Burgos 0-0 HT 0-0 Valladolid Valladolid HAZ
08.01.2022 Valladolid Valladolid 1-0 HT 0-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
05.09.2021 Burgos Burgos 3-0 HT 3-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burgos
1-0
AWAY Valladolid
1.08 xG 1.21
31% Ball Possession 69%
7 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 9
166 Passes 465
63% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 53
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Burgos vs Valladolid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burgos nicked a narrow win over Valladolid 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 32% / 34% — and on the day Burgos made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Burgos had 31% of the ball to Valladolid's 69%, shots finished 7-20, expected goals 1.08 to 1.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Valladolid led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Burgos and 1.00 for Valladolid.

What was the final score of Burgos vs Valladolid?

Burgos 1-0 Valladolid in the Spain - 2nd Division on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burgos vs Valladolid?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burgos win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Burgos 35%, draw 32%, Valladolid 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burgos), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Burgos) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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