Adelaide United 4-3 Sydney — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 13 Jan 2024

Adelaide United
4-3 HT 3-1
Sydney
📅13/01/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Adelaide United vs Sydney Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.17
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
49%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
31%
3.59
Over 2.5
69%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
66%
1.33
No
34%
3.05
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
14%
8.32
2-3 Goals
37%
2.33
4-5 Goals
35%
2.34
6+ Goals
14%
3.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✓
23%
4.73
1/2
9%
17.65
1/X
3%
13.6
X/1
5%
8.36
X/2
6%
4.85
X/X
9%
7.48
2/1
5%
27.5
2/2
34%
2.28
2/X
6%
13.5
Value flag · 1/1 at 4.73 — our 23% vs market 16.3%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
28%
+4.4pp
19%
Draw
21%
-2.0pp
49%
Away Win
51%
-2.5pp
31%
Under 2.5
24%
+6.7pp
69%
Over 2.5
76%
-6.7pp
66%
BTTS Yes
71%
-5.4pp
34%
BTTS No
29%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Adelaide United v Sydney — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Sydney EU Bookmakers 56%
+13% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.73/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/1.27
+54% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
367 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.5
20.8 Crosses 18.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Adelaide United vs Sydney Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adelaide United
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sydney
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.35 xG 2.11
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
366 Passes 376
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 32
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-5 HT 0-4 Sydney Sydney AVUS
07.04.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-1 HT 0-0 Sydney Sydney AVUS
23.10.2022 Sydney Sydney 2-2 HT 0-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
12.04.2022 Sydney Sydney 2-3 HT 1-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
04.02.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-2 HT 1-1 Sydney Sydney AVUS
19.06.2021 Sydney Sydney 2-1 HT 2-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS

Adelaide United 4-3 Sydney — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adelaide United
4-3
AWAY Sydney
1.74 xG 1.74
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 21
6 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 3
209 Passes 463
65% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 30
7 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Adelaide United vs Sydney
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Adelaide United edged past Sydney 4-3. Half-time: 3-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Sydney at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (69%), both teams to score (66%) came in.

On the day, Adelaide United had 36% of the ball to Sydney's 64%, shots finished 7-21, expected goals 1.74 to 1.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sydney led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Adelaide United and 2.33 for Sydney.

What was the final score of Adelaide United vs Sydney?

Adelaide United 4-3 Sydney in the Australia - A-League on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adelaide United vs Sydney?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sydney win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United 32%, draw 19%, Sydney 49%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sydney) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sydney) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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