Naivas 3-2 TransMara Sugar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Super League, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.27
Draw
33%
5.71
Away
10%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under
38%
Over Pick
62%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Total Goals
0-1
18%
2-3
39%
4-5
32%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
13%
X/1
26%
X/2
4%
X/X
16%
2/1
11%
2/2
4%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
57%
Home Win
74%
-17.9pp
33%
Draw
15%
+18.1pp
11%
Away Win
11%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naivas The Market 79%
Head to Head
AWAY TransMara Sugar The Market 14%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
62% Ball Possession 38%
20 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
500 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naivas
3-2
AWAY TransMara Sugar
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Naivas vs TransMara Sugar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naivas edged past TransMara Sugar 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Naivas as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

On the day, Naivas had 53% of the ball to TransMara Sugar's 47%, shots finished 7-5.

What was the final score of Naivas vs TransMara Sugar?

Naivas 3-2 TransMara Sugar in the Kenya - Super League on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naivas vs TransMara Sugar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Naivas win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Naivas 57%, draw 33%, TransMara Sugar 11%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Naivas), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Naivas) ✓ Over 2.5
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