Mazatlan 0-1 Atletico San Luis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 13 Jan 2024

Mazatlan
0-1 HT 0-0
Atletico San Luis
📅13/01/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Mazatlan vs Atletico San Luis Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
44%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.86
Over 2.5
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.11
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.65
6+ Goals
10%
15.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 29% vs market 26.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.85
1/2
5%
29.0
1/X
8%
12.9
X/1
14%
5.61
X/2
15%
5.39
X/X
12%
4.39
2/1
5%
30.0
2/2
23%
3.64
2/X
6%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
36%
-4.6pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.0pp
44%
Away Win
36%
+7.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.8pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mazatlan v Atletico San Luis — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 40%
+8% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.29/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.38
+13% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
303 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
16.8 Crosses 21.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6

Mazatlan vs Atletico San Luis Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mazatlan
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Atletico San Luis
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.71 xG 1.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 6
301 Passes 276
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.09.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 3-2 HT 2-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
03.04.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 2-1 HT 1-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
23.07.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
02.04.2022 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 1-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
28.08.2021 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-2 HT 1-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
13.02.2021 Mazatlan Mazatlan 0-3 HT 0-2 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK

Mazatlan 0-1 Atletico San Luis — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mazatlan
0-1
AWAY Atletico San Luis
3.10 xG 0.65
53% Ball Possession 47%
25 Total Shots 8
11 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 4
430 Passes 391
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
30 Box Touches 13
32 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mazatlan vs Atletico San Luis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico San Luis edged past Mazatlan 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico San Luis as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Mazatlan had 53% of the ball to Atletico San Luis's 47%, shots finished 25-8, expected goals 3.10 to 0.65 — on chances, Mazatlan could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico San Luis led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mazatlan and 2.00 for Atletico San Luis.

What was the final score of Mazatlan vs Atletico San Luis?

Mazatlan 0-1 Atletico San Luis in the Mexico - Primera on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mazatlan vs Atletico San Luis?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico San Luis win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Mazatlan 31%, draw 25%, Atletico San Luis 44%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico San Luis), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico San Luis) ✓ BTTS No
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