Queretaro 2-2 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 13 Jan 2024

Queretaro
2-2 HT 1-0
Toluca
📅13/01/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Queretaro vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
38%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.07
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.69
6+ Goals
9%
15.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 31% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.41
1/2
6%
26.0
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
12%
6.35
X/2
9%
4.96
X/X
12%
4.62
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
22%
3.11
2/X
6%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
32%
+4.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
37%
Away Win
41%
-3.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.3pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Queretaro v Toluca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queretaro EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 45%
-1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -31%
1.43/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.73
-6% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -18%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
292 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 82%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
19.8 Crosses 16.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7

Queretaro vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queretaro
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Toluca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.07 xG 1.89
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
206 Passes 426
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
08.10.2023 Toluca Toluca 3-1 HT 1-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
06.03.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 1-0 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
02.10.2022 Toluca Toluca 4-1 HT 2-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
25.02.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
03.10.2021 Toluca Toluca 1-1 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
10.01.2021 Toluca Toluca 3-1 HT 2-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK

Queretaro 2-2 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Queretaro
2-2
AWAY Toluca
0.74 xG 1.11
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
208 Passes 462
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 40
21 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Queretaro vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Queretaro and Toluca couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Queretaro had 35% of the ball to Toluca's 65%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 0.74 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Queretaro and 2.00 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Queretaro vs Toluca?

Queretaro 2-2 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queretaro vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Queretaro 36%, draw 26%, Toluca 37%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Toluca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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