Araz 1-0 Neftçi Baku PFK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 13 Feb 2024

📅13/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.04
Away
44%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.51
Over 2.5
45%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
10%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
15%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
31%
+0.9pp
24%
Draw
30%
-5.3pp
44%
Away Win
40%
+4.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
62%
-7.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
38%
+7.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.6pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Araz EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftçi Baku PFK EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +40% / +40%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% /
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
324 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Araz vs Neftçi Baku PFK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Araz squeezed past Neftçi Baku PFK 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Neftçi Baku PFK at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

What was the final score of Araz vs Neftçi Baku PFK?

Araz 1-0 Neftçi Baku PFK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 13/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Araz vs Neftçi Baku PFK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Neftçi Baku PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Araz 32%, draw 24%, Neftçi Baku PFK 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Neftçi Baku PFK) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Neftçi Baku PFK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
13 Feb 2024
14:00 Turan Tovuz vs Qabala Analysis →
16:15 Zira vs Sumqayıt Analysis →