Dundee FC 1-0 Aberdeen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 13 Mar 2024

📅13/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
37%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.78
Over 2.5
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.04
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
3.85
6+ Goals
11%
16.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.85 — our 23% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.34
1/2
12%
28.5
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
12%
6.07
X/2
8%
5.09
X/X
10%
4.28
2/1
9%
33.0
2/2
17%
3.38
2/X
8%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+4.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.2pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-1.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.8pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dundee FC EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 43%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +7%
1.34/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/0.91
+13% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +35%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
297 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
20.5 Crosses 20.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dundee FC
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Aberdeen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.64 xG 1.19
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
180 Passes 349
61% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.01.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 1-1 HT 1-0 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKP
30.04.2022 Aberdeen Aberdeen 1-0 HT 0-0 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKP
02.04.2022 Dundee FC Dundee FC 2-2 HT 0-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
26.12.2021 Aberdeen Aberdeen 2-1 HT 1-1 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKP
16.10.2021 Dundee FC Dundee FC 2-1 HT 0-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
18.08.2019 Dundee FC Dundee FC 1-1 HT 1-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dundee FC
1-0
AWAY Aberdeen
1.92 xG 0.66
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
213 Passes 169
65% Pass Accuracy 62%
22 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dundee FC vs Aberdeen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dundee FC nicked a narrow win over Aberdeen 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 37% — and on the day Dundee FC made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Dundee FC had 54% of the ball to Aberdeen's 46%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 1.92 to 0.66 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Dundee FC's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aberdeen led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Dundee FC and 1.33 for Aberdeen.

What was the final score of Dundee FC vs Aberdeen?

Dundee FC 1-0 Aberdeen in the Scotland - Premiership on 13/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dundee FC vs Aberdeen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dundee FC win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Dundee FC 38%, draw 26%, Aberdeen 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dundee FC) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dundee FC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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