Aluminium Arak 1-3 Mes Rafsanjan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League, 13 Mar 2024

📅13/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.57
Draw
35%
2.58
Away
33%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
72%
1.28
Over 2.5
28%
3.46
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.51
No
61%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
1.73
2-3 Goals
47%
1.96
4-5 Goals
11%
8.79
6+ Goals
5%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
20%
2/1
4%
2/2
16%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Draw ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
36%
-3.5pp
35%
Draw
36%
-1.0pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.5pp
72%
Under 2.5
75%
-3.0pp
28%
Over 2.5
25%
+3.0pp
39%
BTTS Yes
36%
+2.9pp
61%
BTTS No
64%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aluminium Arak EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Mes Rafsanjan EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +10%
0.96/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/0.61
-2% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +56%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
236 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aluminium Arak
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Mes Rafsanjan
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
5 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 2
21.09.2023 Mes Rafsanjan Mes Rafsanjan 2-0 HT 1-0 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak IRAN
07.02.2023 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak 2-1 HT 1-0 Mes Rafsanjan Mes Rafsanjan IRAN
31.08.2022 Mes Rafsanjan Mes Rafsanjan 0-0 HT 0-0 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak IRAN
23.02.2022 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak 0-1 HT 0-0 Mes Rafsanjan Mes Rafsanjan IRAN
06.11.2021 Mes Rafsanjan Mes Rafsanjan 0-0 HT 0-0 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak IRAN
18.03.2021 Mes Rafsanjan Mes Rafsanjan 0-1 HT 0-1 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak IRAN
POST-MATCH Aluminium Arak vs Mes Rafsanjan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mes Rafsanjan got the better of Aluminium Arak 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 35% / 33%) promised a tight game; Mes Rafsanjan found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (72%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Aluminium Arak and 0.67 for Mes Rafsanjan.

What was the final score of Aluminium Arak vs Mes Rafsanjan?

Aluminium Arak 1-3 Mes Rafsanjan in the Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League on 13/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aluminium Arak vs Mes Rafsanjan?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Aluminium Arak 32%, draw 35%, Mes Rafsanjan 33%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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