Aluminij 0-1 Rogaska — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 13 Mar 2024

📅13/03/2024 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.94
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.49
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.42
6+ Goals
11%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 27% vs market 23.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
25%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+1.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
42%
Away Win
43%
-1.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.4pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aluminij EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Rogaska EU Bookmakers 48%
-15% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-25% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
300 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aluminij
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Rogaska
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 4
16.09.2023 Aluminij Aluminij 1-2 HT 0-2 Rogaska Rogaska SLVN
25.11.2022 Aluminij Aluminij 1-2 HT 1-0 Rogaska Rogaska SLVN2
13.08.2022 Rogaska Rogaska 0-1 HT 0-0 Aluminij Aluminij SLVN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aluminij
0-1
AWAY Rogaska
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aluminij vs Rogaska
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rogaska nicked a narrow win over Aluminij 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Rogaska as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Aluminij had 47% of the ball to Rogaska's 53%, shots finished 7-19.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Rogaska led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Aluminij and 1.33 for Rogaska.

What was the final score of Aluminij vs Rogaska?

Aluminij 0-1 Rogaska in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 13/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aluminij vs Rogaska?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rogaska win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Aluminij 31%, draw 27%, Rogaska 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rogaska), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rogaska) ✓ BTTS No
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