Mainz 05 U19 1-4 Porto U19 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA - Youth League, 13 Mar 2024

📅13/03/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.29
Draw
20%
3.64
Away
48%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.55
No
53%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.68
2-3 Goals
46%
1.91
4-5 Goals
26%
2.85
6+ Goals
9%
7.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
19%
5.53
1/2
6%
21.3
1/X
8%
13.55
X/1
9%
8.27
X/2
12%
4.54
X/X
7%
5.63
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
30%
2.4
2/X
5%
13.15
Value flag · 1/1 at 5.53 — our 19% vs market 13.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
27%
+5.7pp
20%
Draw
24%
-4.4pp
48%
Away Win
49%
-1.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-13.5pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+13.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 U19 EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto U19 EU Bookmakers 54%
+57% / +57% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +36% / +36%
2.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/0.11
+56% / +76% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +150%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 79%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
9.0 Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05 U19
1-4
AWAY Porto U19
1.19 xG 2.37
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 5
304 Passes 231
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 33
22 Crosses 13
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 U19 vs Porto U19
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto U19 cruised past Mainz 05 U19 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Porto U19 as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Mainz 05 U19 had 55% of the ball to Porto U19's 45%, shots finished 14-20, expected goals 1.19 to 2.37.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 U19 vs Porto U19?

Mainz 05 U19 1-4 Porto U19 in the UEFA - Youth League on 13/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 U19 vs Porto U19?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto U19 win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 U19 32%, draw 20%, Porto U19 48%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto U19), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto U19) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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