Milan U19 1-1 Real Madrid U19 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA - Youth League, 13 Mar 2024

Milan U19
1-1 HT 0-1
Real Madrid U19
📅13/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
UEFA - Youth League – 2023/2024

Milan U19 vs Real Madrid U19 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.75
Draw
29%
3.8
Away
42%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.38
Over 2.5
47%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.55
No
57%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.93
2-3 Goals
41%
1.94
4-5 Goals
23%
2.78
6+ Goals
9%
7.39
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.93 — our 27% vs market 15.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.29
1/2
5%
20.35
1/X
9%
14.45
X/1 EV+ ✗
12%
9.3
X/2
15%
4.27
X/X
11%
6.08
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.17
2/X
9%
14.1
Value flag · X/1 at 9.3 — our 12% vs market 7.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
23%
+6.2pp
28%
Draw
23%
+5.6pp
42%
Away Win
54%
-11.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
38%
+15.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
62%
-15.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
60%
-17.5pp
57%
BTTS No
40%
+17.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Milan U19 v Real Madrid U19 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan U19 EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid U19 EU Bookmakers 58%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -39% / -39%
1.04/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/2.63
+37% / +139% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -60% / -39%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
278 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 79%
14.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
3.9 Crosses 37.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7

Milan U19 1-1 Real Madrid U19 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan U19
1-1
AWAY Real Madrid U19
0.38 xG 3.15
39% Ball Possession 61%
4 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
240 Passes 418
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
10 Box Touches 27
9 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Milan U19 vs Real Madrid U19
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan U19 and Real Madrid U19 shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Real Madrid U19 at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Milan U19 had 39% of the ball to Real Madrid U19's 61%, shots finished 4-17, expected goals 0.38 to 3.15.

What was the final score of Milan U19 vs Real Madrid U19?

Milan U19 1-1 Real Madrid U19 in the UEFA - Youth League on 13/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan U19 vs Real Madrid U19?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid U19 win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Milan U19 29%, draw 28%, Real Madrid U19 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Real Madrid U19), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid U19) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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