Warta Poznan 3-1 Jastrzebie Zdroj — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 2nd Division, 13 Mar 2026

Warta Poznan
3-1 HT 2-0
Jastrzebie Zdroj
📅13/03/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Poland - 2nd Division – 2025/2026

Warta Poznan vs Jastrzebie Zdroj Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
77%
1.25
Draw
11%
5.28
Away
12%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
30%
2.21
Over 2.5
70%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
2.27
No
39%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
4.1
2-3 Goals
31%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
38%
2.8
6+ Goals
14%
8.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.8 — our 38% vs market 28.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
48%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
19%
X/2
5%
X/X
3%
2/1
10%
2/2
3%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
77%
Home Win
76%
+1.6pp
11%
Draw
16%
-5.1pp
12%
Away Win
8%
+3.5pp
30%
Under 2.5
41%
-11.1pp
70%
Over 2.5
59%
+11.1pp
61%
BTTS Yes
40%
+20.9pp
39%
BTTS No
60%
-20.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Warta Poznan v Jastrzebie Zdroj — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Warta Poznan EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Jastrzebie Zdroj EU Bookmakers 11%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
2.94/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/2.17
+37% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -7%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
429 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.9

Warta Poznan vs Jastrzebie Zdroj Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Warta Poznan
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Jastrzebie Zdroj
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.08.2025 Jastrzebie Zdroj Jastrzebie Zdroj 1-1 HT 1-0 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan POL2
31.08.2022 Jastrzebie Zdroj Jastrzebie Zdroj 0-2 HT 0-2 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan POLK
03.06.2020 Jastrzebie Zdroj Jastrzebie Zdroj 1-2 HT 1-1 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan POL1

Warta Poznan 3-1 Jastrzebie Zdroj — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Warta Poznan
3-1
AWAY Jastrzebie Zdroj
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Warta Poznan vs Jastrzebie Zdroj
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Warta Poznan saw off Jastrzebie Zdroj 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Warta Poznan as the likeliest winner at 77%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (70%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

On the day, Warta Poznan had 60% of the ball to Jastrzebie Zdroj's 40%, shots finished 19-9.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Warta Poznan had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Warta Poznan and 0.67 for Jastrzebie Zdroj.

What was the final score of Warta Poznan vs Jastrzebie Zdroj?

Warta Poznan 3-1 Jastrzebie Zdroj in the Poland - 2nd Division on 13/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Warta Poznan vs Jastrzebie Zdroj?

Before kick-off our model rated a Warta Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 77%, with the full match-result split Warta Poznan 77%, draw 11%, Jastrzebie Zdroj 12%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Warta Poznan), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Warta Poznan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL2 More Poland - 2nd Division
13 Mar 2026
16:00 Sokol Kleczew vs Swit Skolwin Analysis →
17:15 Rekord Bielsko-Biala vs Unia Skierniewice Analysis →
20:00 Stal Stalowa Wola vs Slask Wroclaw II Analysis →