Lecce 1-0 Empoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 13 Apr 2024

Lecce
1-0 HT 0-0
Empoli
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
27%
2.88
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.6
Over 2.5
49%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.55
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
4.64
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.91
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.6
X/1
19%
4.61
X/2
7%
7.63
X/X
10%
3.64
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
14%
6.05
2/X
10%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
-0.2pp
27%
Draw
31%
-3.7pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
59%
-7.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
41%
+7.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.5pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lecce EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Empoli EU Bookmakers 28%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.14/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.18
-40% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
366 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
21.3 Crosses 19.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lecce
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Empoli
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.80 xG 1.92
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
272 Passes 346
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 27
22 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
11.12.2023 Empoli Empoli 1-1 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
03.04.2023 Empoli Empoli 1-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
28.08.2022 Lecce Lecce 1-1 HT 1-1 Empoli Empoli İTA
10.05.2021 Empoli Empoli 2-1 HT 0-1 Lecce Lecce İTB
24.01.2021 Lecce Lecce 2-2 HT 0-1 Empoli Empoli İTB
02.04.2010 Empoli Empoli 2-2 HT 1-2 Lecce Lecce İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lecce
1-0
AWAY Empoli
2.67 xG 0.12
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Target 0
10 Corners 3
270 Passes 226
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 5
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lecce vs Empoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lecce nicked a narrow win over Empoli 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lecce as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Lecce had 54% of the ball to Empoli's 46%, shots finished 14-3, expected goals 2.67 to 0.12 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lecce's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Empoli led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lecce and 1.50 for Empoli.

What was the final score of Lecce vs Empoli?

Lecce 1-0 Empoli in the Italy - Serie A on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lecce vs Empoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lecce win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Lecce 45%, draw 27%, Empoli 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lecce), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lecce) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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