Forge 2-1 Cavalry — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 13 Apr 2024

Forge
2-1 HT 0-0
Cavalry
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Kanada - Premier League – 2024

Forge vs Cavalry Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
30%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.66
No
58%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.45
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.46
6+ Goals
8%
13.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 33% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+0.7pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.5pp
30%
Away Win
36%
-5.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
56%
-14.4pp
58%
BTTS No
44%
+14.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Forge v Cavalry — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Forge EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Cavalry EU Bookmakers 39%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -1%
0.92/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.23
-26% / +71% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -34%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
293 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
16.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
14.2 Crosses 21.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Forge vs Cavalry Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Forge
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Cavalry
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.02 xG 0.93
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
296 Passes 353
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Forge Forge 2-1 HT 0-0 Cavalry Cavalry CAPL
15.10.2023 Cavalry Cavalry 1-2 HT 0-1 Forge Forge CAPL
10.09.2023 Forge Forge 0-0 HT 0-0 Cavalry Cavalry CAPL
05.08.2023 Cavalry Cavalry 3-0 HT 0-0 Forge Forge CAPL
03.06.2023 Cavalry Cavalry 1-1 HT 1-0 Forge Forge CAPL
15.04.2023 Forge Forge 2-2 HT 1-1 Cavalry Cavalry CAPL

Forge 2-1 Cavalry — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Forge
2-1
AWAY Cavalry
0.45 xG 0.61
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 4
401 Passes 322
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Forge vs Cavalry
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Forge squeezed past Cavalry 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 31% / 30%) promised a tight game; Forge found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Forge had 55% of the ball to Cavalry's 45%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 0.45 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Forge had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Forge and 1.33 for Cavalry.

What was the final score of Forge vs Cavalry?

Forge 2-1 Cavalry in the Kanada - Premier League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Forge vs Cavalry?

Before kick-off our model rated a Forge win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Forge 39%, draw 31%, Cavalry 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Forge) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Forge) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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