Trans Narva 2-2 Tallinna Kalev — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.19
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
38%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
7%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-4.7pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.2pp
38%
Away Win
33%
+4.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.3pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trans Narva EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Tallinna Kalev EU Bookmakers 37%
+11% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.62/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.47/1.32
+16% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +102% / +7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
325 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trans Narva
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Tallinna Kalev
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.11.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 5-0 HT 2-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
01.09.2023 Trans Narva Trans Narva 2-1 HT 1-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
07.06.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 0-1 HT 0-1 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
22.04.2023 Trans Narva Trans Narva 2-1 HT 0-1 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
11.10.2022 Trans Narva Trans Narva 2-1 HT 1-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev ESTK
08.10.2022 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 0-2 HT 0-2 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Trans Narva
2-2
AWAY Tallinna Kalev
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Trans Narva vs Tallinna Kalev
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trans Narva and Tallinna Kalev shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 26% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Trans Narva had 54% of the ball to Tallinna Kalev's 46%, shots finished 18-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Trans Narva had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Trans Narva and 1.33 for Tallinna Kalev.

What was the final score of Trans Narva vs Tallinna Kalev?

Trans Narva 2-2 Tallinna Kalev in the Estonia - Premium League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trans Narva vs Tallinna Kalev?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tallinna Kalev win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Trans Narva 37%, draw 26%, Tallinna Kalev 38%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tallinna Kalev), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tallinna Kalev) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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