Ilves Tampere 4-6 Gnistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
27%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.51
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.4
6+ Goals
15%
12.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.12
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
14.75
X/1
12%
3.94
X/2
9%
10.1
X/X
8%
5.13
2/1
9%
23.6
2/2
13%
7.87
2/X
7%
15.6
Value flag · 1/X at 14.75 — our 12% vs market 3.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
56%
-10.8pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.7pp
27%
Away Win
19%
+8.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.2pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Gnistan EU Bookmakers 22%
+2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -28%
1.14/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/2.71
-25% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -48%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
345 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
31.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
21.0 Crosses 17.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 4.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ilves Tampere
4-6
AWAY Gnistan
2.48 xG 2.28
67% Ball Possession 33%
14 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 5
473 Passes 194
84% Pass Accuracy 69%
26 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ilves Tampere vs Gnistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gnistan saw off Ilves Tampere 6-4 away from home. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 10 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Ilves Tampere at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ilves Tampere had 67% of the ball to Gnistan's 33%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 2.48 to 2.28.

What was the final score of Ilves Tampere vs Gnistan?

Ilves Tampere 4-6 Gnistan in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ilves Tampere vs Gnistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Ilves Tampere 46%, draw 27%, Gnistan 27%. The final score 4-6 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ilves Tampere), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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