Rennes 1-2 Toulouse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 13 Apr 2024

Rennes
1-2 HT 1-2
Toulouse
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Rennes vs Toulouse Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.6
6+ Goals
12%
14.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 27% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.41
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.05
X/1
19%
4.14
X/2
8%
8.4
X/X
10%
4.78
2/1
8%
24.45
2/2
16%
6.47
2/X
8%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-4.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-1.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+1.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.7pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rennes v Toulouse — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rennes EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Toulouse EU Bookmakers 27%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.43/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.79
+0% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 76%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
19.3 Crosses 16.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Rennes vs Toulouse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rennes
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Toulouse
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.59 xG 1.42
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
370 Passes 293
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.12.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 0-0 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
12.02.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 3-1 HT 3-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
12.11.2022 Rennes Rennes 2-1 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
29.02.2020 Toulouse Toulouse 0-2 HT 0-1 Rennes Rennes FR1
27.10.2019 Rennes Rennes 3-2 HT 2-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
05.05.2019 Toulouse Toulouse 2-2 HT 1-1 Rennes Rennes FR1

Rennes 1-2 Toulouse — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rennes
1-2
AWAY Toulouse
0.96 xG 0.54
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
409 Passes 307
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rennes vs Toulouse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toulouse squeezed past Rennes 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Rennes at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Rennes had 55% of the ball to Toulouse's 45%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 0.96 to 0.54 — the balance of chances actually favoured Rennes.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rennes had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Rennes and 1.33 for Toulouse.

What was the final score of Rennes vs Toulouse?

Rennes 1-2 Toulouse in the France - Ligue 1 on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rennes vs Toulouse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rennes win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Rennes 46%, draw 24%, Toulouse 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Rennes) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rennes) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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