Fiorentina 2-1 Monza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 13 May 2024

📅13/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.53
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
27%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.15
Over 2.5
46%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.13
2-3 Goals
42%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
3.04
6+ Goals
10%
9.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.13 — our 27% vs market 19.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.87
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.75
X/1
18%
3.72
X/2
10%
11.9
X/X
12%
6.17
2/1
7%
21.45
2/2
10%
9.05
2/X
6%
17.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
61%
-13.4pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.2pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+9.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
43%
+10.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
57%
-10.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.1pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Monza EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +1%
1.82/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.74
-2% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +24%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
426 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 71%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
24.4 Crosses 9.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Monza
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.62 xG 1.32
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
345 Passes 317
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
33 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.12.2023 Monza Monza 0-1 HT 0-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
23.04.2023 Monza Monza 3-2 HT 2-2 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
04.01.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-1 HT 1-0 Monza Monza İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
2-1
AWAY Monza
2.51 xG 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
349 Passes 354
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
36 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Monza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina squeezed past Monza 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fiorentina as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Fiorentina had 50% of the ball to Monza's 50%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 2.51 to 0.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fiorentina's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fiorentina and 1.33 for Monza.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Monza?

Fiorentina 2-1 Monza in the Italy - Serie A on 13/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Monza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 48%, draw 25%, Monza 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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