Bahia 1-0 Bragantino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 13 May 2024

Bahia
1-0 HT 1-0
Bragantino
📅13/05/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Bahia vs Bragantino Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.76
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.39
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.5
6+ Goals
11%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 30% vs market 24.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.37
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.5
X/1
14%
4.08
X/2
10%
8.44
X/X
14%
5.02
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
13%
6.47
2/X
5%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
53%
-11.5pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.9pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+7.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.8pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Bragantino — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Bragantino EU Bookmakers 26%
-5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -14%
1.67/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.34
-2% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
359 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 74%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
23.4 Crosses 20.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7

Bahia vs Bragantino Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Bragantino
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.89 xG 1.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
264 Passes 372
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
20.08.2023 Bahia Bahia 4-0 HT 2-0 Bragantino BR1
16.04.2023 Bragantino 2-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
19.09.2021 Bahia Bahia 1-1 HT 0-0 Bragantino BR1
06.06.2021 Bragantino 3-3 HT 1-2 Bahia Bahia BR1
21.11.2020 Bragantino 4-0 HT 3-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
16.08.2020 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 1-0 Bragantino BR1

Bahia 1-0 Bragantino — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-0
AWAY Bragantino
0.61 xG 0.65
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
309 Passes 319
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Bragantino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia nicked a narrow win over Bragantino 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Bahia had 50% of the ball to Bragantino's 50%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 0.61 to 0.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Bahia and 1.83 for Bragantino.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Bragantino?

Bahia 1-0 Bragantino in the Brazil - Serie A on 13/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Bragantino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Bahia 41%, draw 29%, Bragantino 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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13 May 2024
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