Vasco da Gama 2-1 Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 13 May 2024

📅13/05/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
30%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.89
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.04
6+ Goals
8%
18.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.26
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.1
X/1
16%
3.87
X/2
12%
9.35
X/X
11%
4.54
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
13%
7.76
2/X
7%
16.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
54%
-10.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
30%
Away Win
20%
+9.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.5pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria EU Bookmakers 23%
-16% / -36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +3%
1.87/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.57
-20% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
359 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 77%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
31.1 Crosses 16.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Vitoria
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.11 xG 1.06
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
300 Passes 286
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
11.11.2021 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-3 HT 0-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR2
08.08.2021 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR2
10.09.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 1-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
13.05.2018 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-3 HT 1-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
06.11.2017 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
13.07.2017 Vitoria Vitoria 1-4 HT 0-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
2-1
AWAY Vitoria
1.69 xG 1.68
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
462 Passes 312
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 24
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama nicked a narrow win over Vitoria 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vasco da Gama as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 57% of the ball to Vitoria's 43%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.69 to 1.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.50 for Vitoria.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Vitoria?

Vasco da Gama 2-1 Vitoria in the Brazil - Serie A on 13/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 43%, draw 27%, Vitoria 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vasco da Gama) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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