NAC Breda 3-1 Roda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 13 May 2024

NAC Breda
3 - 1 HT 1 - 0
Roda
📅13/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.07
Over
54%
1.72
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
57%
1.57
No
43%
2.24
Total Goals
0-1
22%
3.97
2-3
47%
1.84
4-5
25%
3.13
6+
6%
10.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.05
1/2
2%
30.0
1/X
6%
12.4
X/1
15%
5.13
X/2
12%
6.58
X/X
16%
4.93
2/1
3%
24.45
2/2
17%
4.35
2/X
5%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 3% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.
SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME NAC Breda The Market 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Roda The Market 34%
Bad Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.40 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.12
1.32 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.44
Weak Attack Strength Average
Weak Defense Strength Strong
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
319 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 81%
21 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22
21 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Roda
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.36 xG 1.19
50% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
336 Passes 327
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.03.2024 Roda Roda 3-1 HT 1-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
09.09.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-3 HT 1-2 Roda Roda HOL2
29.04.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 4-2 HT 3-1 Roda Roda HOL2
26.08.2022 Roda Roda 1-3 HT 0-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
04.02.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-2 HT 0-0 Roda Roda HOL2
10.09.2021 Roda Roda 0-0 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
3 - 1
AWAY Roda
1.81 xG 0.51
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 3
297 Passes 359
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
31 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW NAC Breda vs Roda
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

NAC Breda got the better of Roda 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had NAC Breda as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. Nothing to argue with on goals either — both teams to score (57%) came home.

Under the surface, NAC Breda had 48% of the ball to Roda's 52%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.81 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for NAC Breda and 1.83 for Roda.

NAC Breda vs Roda Result & Final Score

NAC Breda 3 - 1 Roda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 13/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

NAC Breda vs Roda Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 42%, draw 27%, Roda 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NAC Breda), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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