Roda 3-1 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 23 Mar 2024

Roda
3-1 HT 1-1
NAC Breda
📅23/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

Roda vs NAC Breda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.0
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.11
6+ Goals
9%
10.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.0 — our 28% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.9
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
8%
12.7
X/1
16%
4.93
X/2
13%
6.83
X/X
9%
5.04
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
12%
4.58
2/X
8%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-0.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.0pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Roda v NAC Breda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roda EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 33%
-7% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / +4%
1.66/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.43
-4% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
297 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 78%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
19.2 Crosses 19.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Roda vs NAC Breda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roda
1W-3D-2L
AWAY NAC Breda
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.37 xG 1.28
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
344 Passes 314
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.09.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-3 HT 1-2 Roda Roda HOL2
29.04.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 4-2 HT 3-1 Roda Roda HOL2
26.08.2022 Roda Roda 1-3 HT 0-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
04.02.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-2 HT 0-0 Roda Roda HOL2
10.09.2021 Roda Roda 0-0 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
16.04.2021 Roda Roda 3-3 HT 2-2 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2

Roda 3-1 NAC Breda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roda
3-1
AWAY NAC Breda
1.10 xG 1.75
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 6
341 Passes 425
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 19
9 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Roda vs NAC Breda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda got the better of NAC Breda 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Roda as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Roda had 46% of the ball to NAC Breda's 54%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.10 to 1.75 — on chances, NAC Breda could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NAC Breda led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Roda and 2.17 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of Roda vs NAC Breda?

Roda 3-1 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roda vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Roda 44%, draw 25%, NAC Breda 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roda) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Roda) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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