Cambuur 1-0 Telstar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
24%
3.89
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.16
6+ Goals
11%
10.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.89 — our 24% vs market 20.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.82
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
14%
4.76
X/2
12%
6.93
X/X
12%
5.08
2/1
9%
23.6
2/2
11%
4.76
2/X
9%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.1pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cambuur EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Telstar EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -12%
1.21/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.34
-10% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
328 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 75%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
23.3 Crosses 17.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cambuur
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Telstar
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.80 xG 0.98
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
339 Passes 276
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.08.2023 Telstar Telstar 2-3 HT 0-2 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
05.03.2021 Cambuur Cambuur 3-1 HT 2-1 Telstar Telstar HOL2
04.12.2020 Telstar Telstar 1-2 HT 0-0 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
07.09.2019 Telstar Telstar 0-2 HT 0-1 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
05.04.2019 Telstar Telstar 4-2 HT 3-0 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
14.09.2018 Cambuur Cambuur 2-0 HT 1-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cambuur
1-0
AWAY Telstar
1.10 xG 0.26
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
292 Passes 311
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cambuur vs Telstar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cambuur nicked a narrow win over Telstar 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cambuur as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Cambuur had 49% of the ball to Telstar's 51%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.10 to 0.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cambuur had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Cambuur and 1.33 for Telstar.

What was the final score of Cambuur vs Telstar?

Cambuur 1-0 Telstar in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cambuur vs Telstar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cambuur win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Cambuur 44%, draw 27%, Telstar 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cambuur) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cambuur) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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